Dongcheng Pharmaceutical (002675) In-Depth Report: Leading Nuclear Drugs Entering Market Volume Phase Will Meet Value Revaluation
Ping An View: The domestic nuclear medicine market is booming, and Dongcheng Pharmaceutical is building a platform for the nuclear medicine industry: In 2017, the domestic nuclear medicine market was about 43.
82 million, with a CAGR of 12 in 2013-2017.
1%, CAGR is expected to reach 19 in 2018-2022.
40%, which is at the stage of high economic development.
Korea’s nuclear medicine started late, with per capita expenditure in 2017 3.
2 yuan, US 5 only.
7%, huge development space.
Due to certain mutations in radionuclide drugs and high industry barriers, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical and China are basically in the same duopoly competition pattern.
The company’s nuclear drug subsidiaries include Yunke Pharmaceutical, Andyco, Dongcheng Xinke, Yitai Pharmaceutical, etc., to build a nuclear drug industry platform, which has basically covered the current mainstream nuclear drug varieties.
Three core products cater to historical possibilities: the company’s existing products mainly include Yunke injection, fluorine[18F]-FDG, carbon[13C]/[14C]breath test products, and[99mTc]labeled imaging agents,Iodine[131I]sodium hydration oral solution, iodine[125I]sealed seed source, etc.
Yunke injection was written into the consensus of experts in August 2019, broadened the application scenarios, and ranked after the price reduction with mainstream biological agents.
F18-FDG benefited from the release of the PET-CT configuration certificate. The installed capacity doubled by the end of 2020, and there is a 10-fold growth potential in the long run. The company’s nuclear pharmacy has a leading layout and will be the first to enjoy F18-FDG volume.
Urea C13 / C14 capsules are currently the preferred non-invasive inspection method for Hp, with a market size of 14 in 2017.
400 million, CAGR is expected to reach 20% in 2018-2022; the company enjoys the growth dividend of the industry by changing the cooperation model of Shanghai Xinke and Hydroway and representing the C13 variety 武汉夜生活网 of Israel’s Exalenz.
The value of the research pipeline has yet to be discovered, and a new breed of nuclear drugs has begun: Dongcheng Pharmaceutical continues to expand the nuclear drug research and development pipeline through two methods: automatic research and development and external dating.
188[188Re]-HEDP is located in the phase IIb clinical trials and is domestic 1.
Class 1 new drugs have unique advantages in bone metastasis treatment, with a potential market space of 1.5 billion.
18F-NaF injection is more significant than 99mTc-MDP, with higher sensitivity and clearer imaging; the company’s exclusive application has obtained clinical approval and the market space is about 3.
500 million yuan.
18F-FP-CIT PET has shorter imaging time and higher resolution, and is a better PD diagnostic drug 厦门夜网 than 123I-FP-CIT.
The Y-90 microsphere benchmark generally has higher energy for external irradiation treatment. It can be positioned using angiography technology to reduce complications. The incidence of chronic liver cancer is high, and the product has a broad space after it is launched.
The neutron capture technology in North China is classified with the existing proton therapy and heavy ion therapy methods. It has strong tumor lethality, low treatment cost, short treatment cycle, and is expected to become a new generation of precise cancer treatment.
There are also huge applications for the two cooperative varieties with Beijing Cancer Hospital.
The underrated leader in nuclear medicine maintains the “strong recommendation” level: in 2019, the pharmaceutical industry enters the era of centralized procurement. Due to its high barriers and policy immunity, radionuclide drugs have greater certainty in the future and prominent investment value.
The loosening of the configuration certificate policy is expected to release the huge suppressed market in the nuclear medicine industry. The company’s nuclear pharmacy network layout is leading the way. In the future, independent research and development will replace overseas varieties and introduce a rich product line.
We maintain the Air Force performance forecast and expect the company’s operating income to be 30 in 2019-2021.
8.6 billion, 40.
1.5 billion, 51.
69 trillion, net profit attributable to mothers were 3.
7.5 billion, 4.
8 billion, 6.
13 trillion, corresponding to 2019-2021 EPS is 0.
76 yuan, currently only 26 times the corresponding PE in 2020, maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk reminders: 1) The price of heparin APIs rises: There is a certain change in the price of APIs. At present, the prices of APIs are at historically high levels. Although the proportion of profit contribution has gradually declined, if the price of heparin APIs rises, it will affect the company in the short termThe profit level has a certain impact; 2) The volume of nuclear medicine market is lower than expected: As one of the domestic nuclear medicine leaders, existing companies benefit from the release of configuration certificates such as PET-CT and usher in the volume of F18-FDG and other varieties.
However, there is still a certain duplication from the outbound PET-CT configuration planning to the F18-FDG volume. This period is likely to cause the F18 volume to be less than expected; 3) R & D risks: currently researching diversified varieties, similar to the research and development of generic drugs and biological drugsThe nuclear drug research and development also has high investment and high risk characteristics. Therefore, the company may have a research and development progress that is less than expected.